Vushtrria vs Gjilani Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Vushtrria vs Gjilani preview

In the Kosovo Superliga fixture between Vushtrria and Gjilani, the model gives Gjilani a 50% chance to win compared to Vushtrria's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which indicates Gjilani's expected goals of 1.77 outpacing Vushtrria's 1.18.

Both teams to score stands at 59%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 57%. Vushtrria's recent form shows a series of losses, with only one win in their last six matches. Gjilani has a mixed recent record, with two wins in their last three games. If Vushtrria can improve their performance, it could challenge the expected outcome.

Vushtrria vs Gjilani: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Vushtrria	Draw	Gjilani
Model	24%	26%	50%
Market	—	—	—
Published	24%	26%	50%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.18.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Vushtrria and Gjilani expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.18Vushtrria

1.77Gjilani

Total expected goals: 2.96
Attack rating (Vushtrria / Gjilani): 0.82 / 1.02
Defence rating (Vushtrria / Gjilani): 1.41 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vushtrria vs Gjilani score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.3% 8.1% 8.2% 4.8% 3.2% 1 5.1% 12.0% 9.7% 5.7% 3.8% 2 3.6% 6.4% 5.7% 3.4% 2.2% 3 1.4% 2.5% 2.3% 1.3% 0.9% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Vushtrria goals. Columns: Gjilani goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vushtrria vs Gjilani goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 57%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vushtrria vs Gjilani

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Vushtrria	24%	4.11
	Draw	26%	3.92
	Gjilani	50%	1.99
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57%	1.76
	Under 2.5	43%	2.31
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.70
	No	41%	2.42
Double chance	1X (Vushtrria or draw)	50%	2.01
	12 (either side)	74%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Gjilani)	76%	1.32
Handicap -1	Gjilani win by 2+	28%	3.53
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Vushtrria and Gjilani recent form

Vushtrria 1W 0D 5L

Gjilani 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Vushtrria at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-3
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.33
Goals against / match: 3.67
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

Gjilani away

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-1
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 2 of 4

They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Vushtrria at home only, Gjilani away only.

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

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Drita vs Malisheva — team news & stats 2026-10-09
Drenica Skënderaj v Feronikeli — match page 2026-10-10
Prishtina vs Dukagjini — team news & stats 2026-10-11

Prediction snapshot Gjilani to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Gjilani