Estac Troyes vs Le Mans preview
In the Ligue 1 fixture between Estac Troyes and Le Mans, the 1X2 probabilities show Estac Troyes at 45%, Le Mans at 29%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 67%, indicating a strong possibility of an open match.
Estac Troyes has struggled recently, with a form of L-L-L-L-L-W, while Le Mans has a slightly better recent record of L-L-W-D-D-L. The expected goals are 2.07 for Estac Troyes and 1.49 for Le Mans, suggesting that Troyes may have the edge in attack. However, Le Mans has won the last head-to-head encounter and could pose a challenge.
Why this pick: Estac Troyes vs Le Mans
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Estac Troyes 8, Le Mans 8). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Estac Troyes vs Le Mans: model vs market
| Source | Estac Troyes | Draw | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Published | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.35.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Estac Troyes vs Le Mans odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Estac Troyes, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 2.16 | 2.22 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.48 | -0.05 |
| Le Mans | 3.33 | 3.05 | -0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Estac Troyes and Le Mans expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Estac Troyes / Le Mans)
- 0.99 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Estac Troyes / Le Mans)
- 1.00 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Estac Troyes vs Le Mans score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Estac Troyes goals. Columns: Le Mans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Estac Troyes vs Le Mans goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Estac Troyes vs Le Mans
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estac Troyes | 43% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Le Mans | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Estac Troyes or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Le Mans) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Estac Troyes win by 2+ | 25% | 3.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Estac Troyes and Le Mans recent form
Estac Troyes
0W 1D 5L
Le Mans
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Estac Troyes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Le Mans away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Estac Troyes at home only, Le Mans away only.
Estac Troyes vs Le Mans head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Estac Troyes 0 · draws 1 · Le Mans 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Estac Troyes | 0-2 | Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| 2025-10-03 | Le Mans | 2-2 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Lille v Lens — match page 2026-10-30
- Marseille vs Toulouse 2026-10-31
- Strasbourg vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Paris FC vs Monaco 2026-10-31
- Nice v Rennes — match page 2026-10-31
- Lyon vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lorient vs Brest 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Estac Troyes, previous: Toulouse v Estac Troyes analysis
- Le Mans, previous: Auxerre vs Le Mans prediction