Nice vs Rennes preview
In the upcoming match between Nice and Rennes, the 1X2 probabilities show Nice at 35%, draw at 25%, and Rennes at 40%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams have shown attacking potential, with expected goals of 1.76 for Nice and 1.84 for Rennes.
The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 68%, while both teams to score is at 69%. However, Nice's recent form includes two losses in their last six matches, which could impact their performance. Conversely, Rennes has also struggled, with two wins in their last six, making the outcome uncertain.
Why this pick: Nice vs Rennes
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nice 10, Rennes 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nice vs Rennes: model vs market
| Source | Nice | Draw | Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 23% | 42% |
| Market | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Published | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Nice vs Rennes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rennes, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 2.75 | 2.71 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.73 | 3.72 | -0.00 |
| Rennes | 2.43 | 2.37 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nice and Rennes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Nice / Rennes)
- 0.87 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Nice / Rennes)
- 1.12 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nice vs Rennes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nice goals. Columns: Rennes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nice vs Rennes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nice vs Rennes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nice | 35% | 2.87 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Rennes | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nice or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Rennes) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rennes win by 2+ | 23% | 4.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Nice and Rennes recent form
Nice
3W 1D 2L
Rennes
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Rennes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Nice at home only, Rennes away only.
Nice vs Rennes head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Nice 3 · draws 0 · Rennes 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Nice | 0-4 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Rennes | 1-2 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-05-10 | Rennes | 2-0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-03 | Nice | 3-2 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-01-13 | Rennes | 2-0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-11-05 | Nice | 2-0 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Lille v Lens — match page 2026-10-30
- Marseille vs Toulouse 2026-10-31
- Strasbourg vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Paris FC vs Monaco 2026-10-31
- Lyon vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lorient vs Brest 2026-10-31
- Estac Troyes v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Nice, previous: Brest vs Nice: odds and pick
- Rennes, previous: Rennes – Strasbourg, 2026-10-25
- Rennes, next: Rennes – Olympiakos Piraeus, 2026-11-05