Paris FC vs Monaco preview
In the Ligue 1 fixture between Paris FC and Monaco, the 1X2 probabilities show Paris FC at 42%, draw at 26%, and Monaco at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, which occurs 10% of the time according to our model.
Paris FC's expected goals stand at 1.58 while Monaco's is lower at 1.18. Paris FC has a recent form of L-W-L-W-D-W, while Monaco has D-W-L-W-D-W. The model suggests a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score. However, if Monaco improves their scoring efficiency, the outcome could differ significantly.
Why this pick: Paris FC vs Monaco
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Paris FC 10, Monaco 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Paris FC vs Monaco: model vs market
| Source | Paris FC | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Published | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.18.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Paris FC vs Monaco odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paris FC, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 2.32 | 2.25 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.60 | -0.05 |
| Monaco | 2.92 | 2.91 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Paris FC and Monaco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Paris FC / Monaco)
- 1.19 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Paris FC / Monaco)
- 0.82 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Paris FC vs Monaco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Paris FC goals. Columns: Monaco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Paris FC vs Monaco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Paris FC vs Monaco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris FC | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Monaco | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Paris FC or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Monaco) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris FC win by 2+ | 22% | 4.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Paris FC and Monaco recent form
Paris FC
3W 1D 2L
Monaco
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Paris FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monaco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Paris FC at home only, Monaco away only.
Paris FC vs Monaco head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Paris FC 2 · draws 0 · Monaco 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Paris FC | 4-1 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Monaco | 0-1 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Lille v Lens — match page 2026-10-30
- Marseille vs Toulouse 2026-10-31
- Strasbourg vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Nice v Rennes — match page 2026-10-31
- Lyon vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lorient vs Brest 2026-10-31
- Estac Troyes v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Paris FC, previous: Lens – Paris FC, 2026-10-24
- Monaco, previous: Monaco vs Lille prediction
- Monaco, next: Monaco – FC Nordsjaelland, 2026-11-05