Lyon vs Angers preview
Lyon faces Angers with a 66% probability of winning, compared to Angers' 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Lyon's expected goals of 2.51 and Angers' 1.25. Lyon's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Angers has 3 wins in their last 6, including a draw.
While Lyon's strong home advantage and recent performance suggest a high-scoring match, the outcome could change if Angers manages to capitalize on their chances. The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 65%. However, if Angers' defense improves or Lyon struggles to convert, the match dynamics could shift.
Why this pick: Lyon vs Angers
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lyon 10, Angers 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lyon vs Angers: model vs market
| Source | Lyon | Draw | Angers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Market | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Published | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lyon vs Angers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lyon, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.06 | 5.00 | -0.06 |
| Angers | 7.28 | 7.25 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lyon and Angers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Lyon / Angers)
- 1.12 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Lyon / Angers)
- 0.98 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lyon vs Angers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lyon goals. Columns: Angers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lyon vs Angers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lyon vs Angers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 66% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.18 | |
| Angers | 15% | 6.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lyon or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Angers) | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win by 2+ | 39% | 2.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Lyon and Angers recent form
Lyon
4W 0D 2L
Angers
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lyon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Angers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lyon at home only, Angers away only.
Lyon vs Angers head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Lyon 3 · draws 1 · Angers 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Angers | 0-0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Lyon | 1-0 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Lyon | 2-0 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-12-07 | Angers | 0-3 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Lille v Lens — match page 2026-10-30
- Marseille vs Toulouse 2026-10-31
- Strasbourg vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Paris FC vs Monaco 2026-10-31
- Nice v Rennes — match page 2026-10-31
- Lorient vs Brest 2026-10-31
- Estac Troyes v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Lyon, previous: Paris Saint Germain v Lyon analysis
- Lyon, next: Real Sociedad v Lyon analysis
- Angers, previous: Angers v Lorient analysis