Lorient vs Brest preview
Lorient faces Brest with a 38% chance to win compared to Brest's 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 9% of the time according to our model. Lorient's expected goals stand at 1.44, while Brest's is slightly lower at 1.34. Both teams to score has a probability of 55%, and there is a 51% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
Lorient's recent form shows D-W-W-L-D-W, while Brest has L-D-W-L-L-W. Historically, in their last 4 encounters, Lorient has not won, with Brest securing 3 victories and 1 draw. This context could affect the outcome, particularly if Lorient fails to convert their chances or if Brest improves their performance.
Why this pick: Lorient vs Brest
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lorient 10, Brest 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lorient vs Brest: model vs market
| Source | Lorient | Draw | Brest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 26% | 36% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.61, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lorient vs Brest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lorient, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 2.68 | 2.46 | -0.23 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.35 | -0.15 |
| Brest | 2.62 | 2.79 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lorient and Brest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Lorient / Brest)
- 0.90 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Lorient / Brest)
- 0.85 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lorient vs Brest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lorient goals. Columns: Brest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lorient vs Brest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lorient vs Brest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lorient | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Brest | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lorient or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Brest) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lorient win by 2+ | 17% | 5.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Lorient and Brest recent form
Lorient
3W 2D 1L
Brest
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lorient at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Brest away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lorient at home only, Brest away only.
Lorient vs Brest head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Lorient 0 · draws 1 · Brest 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Brest | 2-0 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Lorient | 3-3 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-03-31 | Lorient | 0-1 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-12-20 | Brest | 4-0 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Lille v Lens — match page 2026-10-30
- Marseille vs Toulouse 2026-10-31
- Strasbourg vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Paris FC vs Monaco 2026-10-31
- Nice v Rennes — match page 2026-10-31
- Lyon vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Estac Troyes v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Lorient, previous: Angers v Lorient analysis
- Brest, previous: Brest vs Nice: odds and pick