CA La Paz vs Piratas preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX fixture between CA La Paz and Piratas, the 1X2 probabilities show CA La Paz at 58%, while Piratas sit at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.18 for CA La Paz and 1.25 for Piratas.
Both teams to score has a probability of 64%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 67%. Recent form indicates CA La Paz has been strong with four wins in their last six matches, while Piratas have struggled, with three draws and a loss in their last six. These factors suggest CA La Paz is favored, but unexpected results could arise from Piratas improving their form.
CA La Paz vs Piratas: model vs market
| Source | CA La Paz | Draw | Piratas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CA La Paz and Piratas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.43
- Attack rating (CA La Paz / Piratas)
- 1.52 / 1.23
- Defence rating (CA La Paz / Piratas)
- 0.86 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CA La Paz vs Piratas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CA La Paz goals. Columns: Piratas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CA La Paz vs Piratas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CA La Paz vs Piratas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Piratas | 20% | 4.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CA La Paz or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Piratas) | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win by 2+ | 36% | 2.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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CA La Paz and Piratas recent form
CA La Paz
4W 2D 0L
Piratas
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CA La Paz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-2
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.11
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 9
- They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Piratas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-3
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 1.44
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 9
- They have won 7 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 17 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CA La Paz at home only, Piratas away only.
CA La Paz vs Piratas head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: CA La Paz 1 · draws 0 · Piratas 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | CA La Paz | 2-0 | Piratas | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
- Piratas vs CA La Paz 2026-11-12
- Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG — team news & stats 2026-11-13
- Leones Negros UDG v Monarcas — match page 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- CA La Paz, previous: Piratas v CA La Paz analysis
- Piratas, previous: Piratas v CA La Paz analysis