Piratas vs CA La Paz preview
In the match between Piratas and CA La Paz, the 1X2 probabilities show Piratas at 49% and CA La Paz at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model indicates a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 66%.
Piratas' recent form includes three draws and two wins, while CA La Paz has been more consistent with four wins and two draws. However, Piratas has not won in their last head-to-head encounter, which could impact their performance. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Piratas vs CA La Paz: model vs market
| Source | Piratas | Draw | CA La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.46.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.94, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Piratas vs CA La Paz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Piratas, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piratas | 1.69 | 1.84 | +0.16 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.67 | -0.27 |
| CA La Paz | 4.27 | 3.67 | -0.59 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Piratas and CA La Paz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (Piratas / CA La Paz)
- 1.23 / 1.52
- Defence rating (Piratas / CA La Paz)
- 0.81 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Piratas vs CA La Paz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Piratas goals. Columns: CA La Paz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Piratas vs CA La Paz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Piratas vs CA La Paz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| CA La Paz | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Piratas or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or CA La Paz) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win by 2+ | 26% | 3.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Piratas and CA La Paz recent form
Piratas
2W 3D 1L
CA La Paz
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Piratas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-1
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
- They have won 7 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 17 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CA La Paz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Piratas at home only, CA La Paz away only.
Piratas vs CA La Paz head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Piratas 0 · draws 0 · CA La Paz 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | CA La Paz | 2-0 | Piratas | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
- Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG — team news & stats 2026-11-13
- Leones Negros UDG v Monarcas — match page 2026-11-14
- CA La Paz vs Piratas — team news & stats 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Piratas, previous: Piratas vs Cancún: odds and pick
- Piratas, next: CA La Paz vs Piratas prediction
- CA La Paz, previous: CA La Paz v Tlaxcala analysis
- CA La Paz, next: CA La Paz vs Piratas prediction