CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX match between CA La Paz and Tlaxcala, the 1X2 probabilities show CA La Paz at 67%, Tlaxcala at 15%, and a draw at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. CA La Paz has an expected goals figure of 2.71, while Tlaxcala sits at 1.29.
There's a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 68%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. If CA La Paz's recent form, which includes 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 6 matches, falters, it could impact the expected outcome.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala: model vs market
| Source | CA La Paz | Draw | Tlaxcala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.29.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CA La Paz and Tlaxcala expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.00
- Attack rating (CA La Paz / Tlaxcala)
- 1.53 / 1.30
- Defence rating (CA La Paz / Tlaxcala)
- 0.84 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CA La Paz goals. Columns: Tlaxcala goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 67% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.62 | |
| Tlaxcala | 15% | 6.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CA La Paz or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Tlaxcala) | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win by 2+ | 47% | 2.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CA La Paz and Tlaxcala recent form
CA La Paz
4W 1D 1L
Tlaxcala
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CA La Paz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.9 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Tlaxcala away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-3
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have converted 6 of 9 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CA La Paz at home only, Tlaxcala away only.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: CA La Paz 4 · draws 4 · Tlaxcala 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | CA La Paz | 2-2 | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2026-03-08 | CA La Paz | 2-0 | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-09-28 | Tlaxcala | 3-3 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-01-11 | CA La Paz | 4-4 | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-07-27 | Tlaxcala | 0-2 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-02-17 | Tlaxcala | 2-3 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-09-27 | CA La Paz | 1-0 | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-04-04 | Tlaxcala | 1-0 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2022-08-10 | CA La Paz | 2-2 | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
- Venados FC v Monarcas — match page 2026-11-04
- Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz 2026-11-05
- Cancún vs Piratas — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Durango v Leones Negros UDG — match page 2026-11-06
- Monarcas vs Venados FC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Leones Negros UDG vs Durango 2026-11-08
- Piratas vs Cancún — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- CA La Paz, previous: Tlaxcala v CA La Paz analysis
- Tlaxcala, previous: Tlaxcala v CA La Paz analysis