Durango vs Leones Negros UDG preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX fixture between Durango and Leones Negros UDG, the 1X2 probabilities show Durango at 52% and Leones Negros UDG at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Durango's expected goals are 1.90, while Leones Negros UDG's are lower at 1.25.
Both teams to score stands at 62%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 61%. However, Durango's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Leones Negros UDG also has a strong record with 4 wins in their last 5. This recent performance could challenge the expected outcomes.
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG: model vs market
| Source | Durango | Draw | Leones Negros UDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.25.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Durango and Leones Negros UDG expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.15
- Attack rating (Durango / Leones Negros UDG)
- 1.17 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Durango / Leones Negros UDG)
- 0.77 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Durango goals. Columns: Leones Negros UDG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Durango vs Leones Negros UDG
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Durango | 52% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Leones Negros UDG | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Durango or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Leones Negros UDG) | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Durango win by 2+ | 30% | 3.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Durango and Leones Negros UDG recent form
Durango
4W 1D 1L
Leones Negros UDG
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Durango at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Leones Negros UDG away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Durango at home only, Leones Negros UDG away only.
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Durango 1 · draws 0 · Leones Negros UDG 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Durango | 1-2 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-02-08 | Leones Negros UDG | 1-0 | Durango | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2022-08-18 | Durango | 1-0 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
- Venados FC v Monarcas — match page 2026-11-04
- Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz 2026-11-05
- Cancún vs Piratas — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Monarcas vs Venados FC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- CA La Paz v Tlaxcala — match page 2026-11-08
- Leones Negros UDG vs Durango 2026-11-08
- Piratas vs Cancún — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Durango, previous: Durango – Monarcas, 2026-11-01
- Durango, next: Leones Negros UDG – Durango, 2026-11-08
- Leones Negros UDG, previous: Leones Negros UDG – Tepatitlán, 2026-11-01
- Leones Negros UDG, next: Leones Negros UDG – Durango, 2026-11-08