Venados FC vs Monarcas preview
In the fixture between Venados FC and Monarcas, the 1X2 probabilities show Venados FC at 43%, Monarcas at 31%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% probability. Venados FC has an expected goals figure of 2.01, while Monarcas sits at 1.21, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 62%, suggesting that goals could come from both sides. However, Venados FC's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Monarcas has only 1 win in the same period. This disparity in form could influence the outcome, potentially making the predictions less reliable.
Venados FC vs Monarcas: model vs market
| Source | Venados FC | Draw | Monarcas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Venados FC below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Venados FC vs Monarcas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Venados FC, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venados FC | 2.27 | 2.20 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.30 | -0.02 |
| Monarcas | 2.65 | 2.87 | +0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Venados FC and Monarcas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Venados FC / Monarcas)
- 1.20 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Venados FC / Monarcas)
- 0.99 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Venados FC vs Monarcas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Venados FC goals. Columns: Monarcas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Venados FC vs Monarcas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Venados FC vs Monarcas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venados FC | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Monarcas | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Venados FC or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Monarcas) | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Venados FC win by 2+ | 33% | 3.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Venados FC and Monarcas recent form
Venados FC
3W 3D 0L
Monarcas
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Venados FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-0
- Win rate
- 86%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Monarcas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Venados FC at home only, Monarcas away only.
Venados FC vs Monarcas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Venados FC 4 · draws 2 · Monarcas 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Venados FC | 2-1 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2026-02-15 | Monarcas | 2-1 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-09-05 | Venados FC | 2-2 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-03-03 | Monarcas | 1-0 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-09-14 | Venados FC | 2-1 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-03-29 | Monarcas | 3-4 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-11-10 | Monarcas | 1-1 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-10-20 | Venados FC | 2-1 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-01-27 | Monarcas | 1-0 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2022-07-30 | Venados FC | 0-2 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
- Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz 2026-11-05
- Cancún vs Piratas — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Durango v Leones Negros UDG — match page 2026-11-06
- Monarcas vs Venados FC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- CA La Paz v Tlaxcala — match page 2026-11-08
- Leones Negros UDG vs Durango 2026-11-08
- Piratas vs Cancún — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Venados FC, previous: Correcaminos Uat vs Venados FC prediction
- Venados FC, next: Monarcas vs Venados FC prediction
- Monarcas, previous: Durango – Monarcas, 2026-11-01
- Monarcas, next: Monarcas vs Venados FC prediction