Piratas vs Cancún preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX, Piratas face Cancún with a 51% chance for Piratas to win, compared to 24% for Cancún. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.81 for Piratas and 1.18 for Cancún. With a 57% probability for Over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, there are strong indicators for a high-scoring match.
However, the recent form shows Piratas with mixed results at D-W-W-L-W-L, while Cancún has been more consistent with W-W-D-D-W-L. This variance in form could affect the outcome, making the match unpredictable despite the numbers.
Piratas vs Cancún: model vs market
| Source | Piratas | Draw | Cancún |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.18.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Piratas and Cancún expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (Piratas / Cancún)
- 1.32 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Piratas / Cancún)
- 0.79 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Piratas vs Cancún score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Piratas goals. Columns: Cancún goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Piratas vs Cancún goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Piratas vs Cancún
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Cancún | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Piratas or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Cancún) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win by 2+ | 29% | 3.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Piratas and Cancún recent form
Piratas
3W 1D 2L
Cancún
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Piratas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.14
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cancún away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Piratas at home only, Cancún away only.
Piratas vs Cancún head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Piratas 0 · draws 0 · Cancún 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Piratas | 0-1 | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
- Venados FC v Monarcas — match page 2026-11-04
- Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz 2026-11-05
- Cancún vs Piratas — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Durango v Leones Negros UDG — match page 2026-11-06
- Monarcas vs Venados FC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- CA La Paz v Tlaxcala — match page 2026-11-08
- Leones Negros UDG vs Durango 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Piratas, previous: Cancún – Piratas, 2026-11-06
- Cancún, previous: Cancún – Piratas, 2026-11-06