Monarcas vs Venados FC preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX fixture, Monarcas has a 48% chance to win against Venados FC, who has a 27% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The model suggests a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 63%.
Monarcas' expected goals stand at 1.82, while Venados FC is at 1.33. Monarcas has struggled recently with a record of L-W-L-D-D-L, whereas Venados FC shows better form with D-W-D-D-W-W. The head-to-head record is balanced, with both teams winning 4 times in the last 10 encounters. A draw is also a possibility with a 25% probability.
Monarcas vs Venados FC: model vs market
| Source | Monarcas | Draw | Venados FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.33.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Monarcas and Venados FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.15
- Attack rating (Monarcas / Venados FC)
- 1.03 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Monarcas / Venados FC)
- 0.94 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monarcas vs Venados FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monarcas goals. Columns: Venados FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monarcas vs Venados FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monarcas vs Venados FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monarcas | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Venados FC | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monarcas or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Venados FC) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monarcas win by 2+ | 27% | 3.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Monarcas and Venados FC recent form
Monarcas
1W 2D 3L
Venados FC
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monarcas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Venados FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-4
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.12
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Monarcas at home only, Venados FC away only.
Monarcas vs Venados FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Monarcas 4 · draws 2 · Venados FC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Venados FC | 2-1 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2026-02-15 | Monarcas | 2-1 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-09-05 | Venados FC | 2-2 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-03-03 | Monarcas | 1-0 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-09-14 | Venados FC | 2-1 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-03-29 | Monarcas | 3-4 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-11-10 | Monarcas | 1-1 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-10-20 | Venados FC | 2-1 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-01-27 | Monarcas | 1-0 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2022-07-30 | Venados FC | 0-2 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
- Venados FC v Monarcas — match page 2026-11-04
- Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz 2026-11-05
- Cancún vs Piratas — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Durango v Leones Negros UDG — match page 2026-11-06
- CA La Paz v Tlaxcala — match page 2026-11-08
- Leones Negros UDG vs Durango 2026-11-08
- Piratas vs Cancún — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Monarcas, previous: Venados FC vs Monarcas prediction
- Venados FC, previous: Venados FC vs Monarcas prediction