Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG preview
Monarcas face Leones Negros UDG with a 46% chance of winning compared to 28% for Leones Negros UDG. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time in our model. Monarcas have an expected goals figure of 1.70, while Leones Negros UDG sit at 1.30.
Both teams to score has a probability of 60%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 58%. However, Monarcas' recent form shows inconsistency with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Leones Negros UDG have 3 wins in the same period. This could impact the outcome, making it less predictable.
Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG: model vs market
| Source | Monarcas | Draw | Leones Negros UDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.30.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Monarcas and Leones Negros UDG expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Monarcas / Leones Negros UDG)
- 1.08 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Monarcas / Leones Negros UDG)
- 0.90 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monarcas goals. Columns: Leones Negros UDG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monarcas | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Leones Negros UDG | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.65 |
| No | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monarcas or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Leones Negros UDG) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monarcas win by 2+ | 25% | 4.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Monarcas and Leones Negros UDG recent form
Monarcas
3W 1D 2L
Leones Negros UDG
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monarcas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
Leones Negros UDG away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.78
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 9
- They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 17 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monarcas at home only, Leones Negros UDG away only.
Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Monarcas 3 · draws 0 · Leones Negros UDG 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Monarcas | 2-0 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2026-04-05 | Leones Negros UDG | 2-0 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-10-26 | Monarcas | 2-3 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-05-11 | Leones Negros UDG | 2-0 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-05-04 | Monarcas | 2-0 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-03-21 | Leones Negros UDG | 2-1 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-10-05 | Monarcas | 0-2 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-04-05 | Monarcas | 0-2 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-11-19 | Leones Negros UDG | 2-0 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-11-16 | Monarcas | 2-1 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
- Piratas vs CA La Paz 2026-11-12
- Leones Negros UDG v Monarcas — match page 2026-11-14
- CA La Paz vs Piratas — team news & stats 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Monarcas, previous: Monarcas vs Venados FC prediction
- Monarcas, next: Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas: odds and pick
- Leones Negros UDG, previous: Leones Negros UDG – Durango, 2026-11-08
- Leones Negros UDG, next: Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas: odds and pick