Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas preview
In the fixture between Leones Negros UDG and Monarcas, the 1X2 probabilities show Leones Negros UDG at 55%, while Monarcas sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance. The expected goals indicate Leones Negros UDG at 1.95 and Monarcas at 1.13.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 59%. Recent form shows Leones Negros UDG with a record of W-L-W-W-L-D, while Monarcas has W-W-L-W-L-D. Despite the strong head-to-head record of Leones Negros UDG, with 7 wins in the last 10 encounters, the confidence grade is C, suggesting potential unpredictability in the outcome.
Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas: model vs market
| Source | Leones Negros UDG | Draw | Monarcas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.13.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Leones Negros UDG and Monarcas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (Leones Negros UDG / Monarcas)
- 1.22 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Leones Negros UDG / Monarcas)
- 0.89 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leones Negros UDG goals. Columns: Monarcas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones Negros UDG | 55% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Monarcas | 21% | 4.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leones Negros UDG or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Monarcas) | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones Negros UDG win by 2+ | 33% | 3.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leones Negros UDG and Monarcas recent form
Leones Negros UDG
3W 1D 2L
Monarcas
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leones Negros UDG at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 17 matches.
Monarcas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 1.11
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 9
- They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Leones Negros UDG at home only, Monarcas away only.
Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Leones Negros UDG 7 · draws 0 · Monarcas 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Monarcas | 2-0 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2026-04-05 | Leones Negros UDG | 2-0 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-10-26 | Monarcas | 2-3 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-05-11 | Leones Negros UDG | 2-0 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-05-04 | Monarcas | 2-0 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-03-21 | Leones Negros UDG | 2-1 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-10-05 | Monarcas | 0-2 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-04-05 | Monarcas | 0-2 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-11-19 | Leones Negros UDG | 2-0 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-11-16 | Monarcas | 2-1 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
- Piratas vs CA La Paz 2026-11-12
- Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG — team news & stats 2026-11-13
- CA La Paz vs Piratas — team news & stats 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Leones Negros UDG, previous: Monarcas – Leones Negros UDG, 2026-11-13
- Monarcas, previous: Monarcas – Leones Negros UDG, 2026-11-13