Leones Negros UDG vs Durango preview
Leones Negros UDG faces Durango with a 51% chance of winning compared to Durango's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.89 for Leones Negros UDG and 1.26 for Durango. The model also indicates a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 62%.
However, recent form shows Leones Negros UDG has won 4 of their last 6 matches, while Durango has also been strong with 4 wins in their last 6 games. This could lead to a tighter contest than the numbers suggest. Additionally, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango: model vs market
| Source | Leones Negros UDG | Draw | Durango |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.26.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Leones Negros UDG and Durango expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.15
- Attack rating (Leones Negros UDG / Durango)
- 1.38 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Leones Negros UDG / Durango)
- 0.91 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leones Negros UDG goals. Columns: Durango goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leones Negros UDG vs Durango
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones Negros UDG | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Durango | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leones Negros UDG or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Durango) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones Negros UDG win by 2+ | 30% | 3.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leones Negros UDG and Durango recent form
Leones Negros UDG
4W 1D 1L
Durango
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leones Negros UDG at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 2.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
Durango away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-3
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 0.62
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 8
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Leones Negros UDG at home only, Durango away only.
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Leones Negros UDG 2 · draws 0 · Durango 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Durango | 1-2 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-02-08 | Leones Negros UDG | 1-0 | Durango | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2022-08-18 | Durango | 1-0 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
- Venados FC v Monarcas — match page 2026-11-04
- Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz 2026-11-05
- Cancún vs Piratas — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Durango v Leones Negros UDG — match page 2026-11-06
- Monarcas vs Venados FC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- CA La Paz v Tlaxcala — match page 2026-11-08
- Piratas vs Cancún — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Leones Negros UDG, previous: Durango vs Leones Negros UDG: odds and pick
- Durango, previous: Durango vs Leones Negros UDG: odds and pick