Cancún vs Piratas preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX match between Cancún and Piratas, Cancún has a 38% chance to win compared to Piratas' 35%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% probability. Cancún's expected goals stand at 1.78, while Piratas has 1.20.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Cancún winning 3 of their last 5 matches and Piratas winning 3 as well. The model suggests a 57% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score. However, if Piratas improves their attack or Cancún's defense falters, these predictions could change.
Cancún vs Piratas: model vs market
| Source | Cancún | Draw | Piratas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Published | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.20.
- The market prices Cancún below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.78, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cancún vs Piratas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cancún, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cancún | 2.62 | 2.62 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.28 | +0.00 |
| Piratas | 2.38 | 2.38 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cancún and Piratas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Cancún / Piratas)
- 1.26 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Cancún / Piratas)
- 0.77 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cancún vs Piratas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cancún goals. Columns: Piratas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cancún vs Piratas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cancún vs Piratas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cancún | 38% | 2.61 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Piratas | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cancún or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Piratas) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cancún win by 2+ | 28% | 3.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cancún and Piratas recent form
Cancún
3W 2D 1L
Piratas
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cancún at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 8
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Piratas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cancún at home only, Piratas away only.
Cancún vs Piratas head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Cancún 1 · draws 0 · Piratas 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Piratas | 0-1 | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
- Venados FC v Monarcas — match page 2026-11-04
- Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz 2026-11-05
- Durango v Leones Negros UDG — match page 2026-11-06
- Monarcas vs Venados FC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- CA La Paz v Tlaxcala — match page 2026-11-08
- Leones Negros UDG vs Durango 2026-11-08
- Piratas vs Cancún — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Cancún, previous: Cancún vs CDS Tampico Madero prediction
- Cancún, next: Piratas vs Cancún: odds and pick
- Piratas, previous: Piratas v Tapatío analysis
- Piratas, next: Piratas vs Cancún: odds and pick