Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX match between Tlaxcala and CA La Paz, the 1X2 probabilities show Tlaxcala at 38%, a draw at 25%, and CA La Paz at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Both teams have a strong chance of scoring, with our model indicating 72% for both teams to score and 72% for Over 2.5 goals.
Recent form suggests both teams are competitive, with Tlaxcala recording 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while CA La Paz has 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. However, the head-to-head record leans towards CA La Paz, who have 4 wins in the last 9 encounters. This could impact the outcome, making it a closely contested match.
Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz: model vs market
| Source | Tlaxcala | Draw | CA La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| Market | 37% | 25% | 37% |
| Published | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.54, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tlaxcala, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tlaxcala | 2.39 | 2.39 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.52 | +0.00 |
| CA La Paz | 2.40 | 2.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tlaxcala and CA La Paz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (Tlaxcala / CA La Paz)
- 1.30 / 1.53
- Defence rating (Tlaxcala / CA La Paz)
- 0.99 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tlaxcala goals. Columns: CA La Paz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tlaxcala | 38% | 2.61 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| CA La Paz | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tlaxcala or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or CA La Paz) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tlaxcala win by 2+ | 23% | 4.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tlaxcala and CA La Paz recent form
Tlaxcala
4W 2D 0L
CA La Paz
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tlaxcala at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-2
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have converted 6 of 9 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CA La Paz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.9 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Tlaxcala at home only, CA La Paz away only.
Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Tlaxcala 1 · draws 4 · CA La Paz 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | CA La Paz | 2-2 | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2026-03-08 | CA La Paz | 2-0 | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-09-28 | Tlaxcala | 3-3 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-01-11 | CA La Paz | 4-4 | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-07-27 | Tlaxcala | 0-2 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-02-17 | Tlaxcala | 2-3 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-09-27 | CA La Paz | 1-0 | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-04-04 | Tlaxcala | 1-0 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2022-08-10 | CA La Paz | 2-2 | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
- Venados FC v Monarcas — match page 2026-11-04
- Cancún vs Piratas — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Durango v Leones Negros UDG — match page 2026-11-06
- Monarcas vs Venados FC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- CA La Paz v Tlaxcala — match page 2026-11-08
- Leones Negros UDG vs Durango 2026-11-08
- Piratas vs Cancún — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Tlaxcala, previous: Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tlaxcala: odds and pick
- Tlaxcala, next: CA La Paz v Tlaxcala analysis
- CA La Paz, previous: CA La Paz v Dorados analysis
- CA La Paz, next: CA La Paz v Tlaxcala analysis