Dacia-Buiucani vs Sheriff Tiraspol Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Dacia-Buiucani vs Sheriff Tiraspol: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Dacia-Buiucani	Draw	Sheriff Tiraspol
Model	33%	28%	39%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	28%	39%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Dacia-Buiucani and Sheriff Tiraspol expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Dacia-Buiucani

1.41Sheriff Tiraspol

Total expected goals: 2.69
Attack rating (Dacia-Buiucani / Sheriff Tiraspol): 0.87 / 1.40
Defence rating (Dacia-Buiucani / Sheriff Tiraspol): 0.77 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dacia-Buiucani vs Sheriff Tiraspol score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 8.4% 6.8% 3.2% 1.5% 1 7.4% 13.5% 8.7% 4.1% 2.0% 2 5.5% 7.8% 5.5% 2.6% 1.3% 3 2.4% 3.3% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Dacia-Buiucani goals. Columns: Sheriff Tiraspol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dacia-Buiucani vs Sheriff Tiraspol goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 50%

Over 3.5 28%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dacia-Buiucani vs Sheriff Tiraspol

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Dacia-Buiucani	33%	3.06
	Draw	28%	3.54
	Sheriff Tiraspol	39%	2.56
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	50%	1.98
	Under 2.5	50%	2.02
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.79
	No	44%	2.26
Double chance	1X (Dacia-Buiucani or draw)	61%	1.64
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Sheriff Tiraspol)	67%	1.49
Handicap -1	Sheriff Tiraspol win by 2+	19%	5.27
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Dacia-Buiucani and Sheriff Tiraspol recent form

Dacia-Buiucani 3W 2D 1L

Sheriff Tiraspol 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dacia-Buiucani at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-1-2
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 1.67
Clean sheets: 3 of 6

They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sheriff Tiraspol away

Record (W-D-L): 3-2-1
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.83
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 2 of 6

They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Dacia-Buiucani at home only, Sheriff Tiraspol away only.

Dacia-Buiucani vs Sheriff Tiraspol head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Dacia-Buiucani 0 · draws 0 · Sheriff Tiraspol 6.

0% 0% 100%

Dacia-BuiucaniDrawsSheriff Tiraspol

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-08-09	Sheriff Tiraspol	1-0	Dacia-Buiucani	Moldova Super Liga
2026-05-03	Dacia-Buiucani	1-2	Sheriff Tiraspol	Moldova Super Liga
2026-03-20	Sheriff Tiraspol	2-0	Dacia-Buiucani	Moldova Super Liga
2025-11-30	Dacia-Buiucani	0-4	Sheriff Tiraspol	Moldova Super Liga
2025-09-27	Sheriff Tiraspol	1-0	Dacia-Buiucani	Moldova Super Liga
2025-08-03	Dacia-Buiucani	0-2	Sheriff Tiraspol	Moldova Super Liga

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

CSF Bălți v Sireți — match page 2026-10-10
Milsami Orhei vs Politehnica UTM 2026-10-11
Petrocub v Zimbru — match page 2026-10-11

Prediction snapshot Sheriff Tiraspol to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Sheriff Tiraspol