Petrocub vs Zimbru: model vs market
| Source | Petrocub | Draw | Zimbru |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 27% | 43% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 29% | 27% | 43% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Petrocub and Zimbru expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Petrocub / Zimbru)
- 1.04 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Petrocub / Zimbru)
- 0.95 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Petrocub vs Zimbru score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Petrocub goals. Columns: Zimbru goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Petrocub vs Zimbru goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Petrocub vs Zimbru
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Petrocub | 29% | 3.42 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Zimbru | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Petrocub or draw) | 57% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Zimbru) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zimbru win by 2+ | 23% | 4.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Petrocub and Zimbru recent form
Petrocub
3W 1D 2L
Zimbru
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Petrocub at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zimbru away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Petrocub at home only, Zimbru away only.
Petrocub vs Zimbru head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Petrocub 3 · draws 3 · Zimbru 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Zimbru | 1-2 | Petrocub | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-05-17 | Zimbru | 1-1 | Petrocub | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-04-11 | Petrocub | 3-0 | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-10-19 | Zimbru | 0-0 | Petrocub | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-08-16 | Zimbru | 1-1 | Petrocub | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-06-29 | Petrocub | 2-1 | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- CSF Bălți v Sireți — match page 2026-10-10
- Dacia-Buiucani vs Sheriff Tiraspol — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Milsami Orhei vs Politehnica UTM 2026-10-11