Milsami Orhei vs Politehnica UTM: model vs market
| Source | Milsami Orhei | Draw | Politehnica UTM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Milsami Orhei and Politehnica UTM expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (Milsami Orhei / Politehnica UTM)
- 0.82 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Milsami Orhei / Politehnica UTM)
- 0.84 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Milsami Orhei vs Politehnica UTM score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Milsami Orhei goals. Columns: Politehnica UTM goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Milsami Orhei vs Politehnica UTM goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Milsami Orhei vs Politehnica UTM
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Milsami Orhei | 40% | 2.48 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Politehnica UTM | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Milsami Orhei or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Politehnica UTM) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Milsami Orhei win by 2+ | 19% | 5.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Milsami Orhei and Politehnica UTM recent form
Milsami Orhei
3W 1D 2L
Politehnica UTM
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Milsami Orhei at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
Politehnica UTM away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Milsami Orhei at home only, Politehnica UTM away only.
Milsami Orhei vs Politehnica UTM head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Milsami Orhei 3 · draws 1 · Politehnica UTM 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Politehnica UTM | 1-1 | Milsami Orhei | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-10-18 | Politehnica UTM | 0-5 | Milsami Orhei | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-08-17 | Milsami Orhei | 4-1 | Politehnica UTM | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-06-28 | Politehnica UTM | 0-3 | Milsami Orhei | Moldova Super Liga |
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