Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru preview
In the Moldova Super Liga, Sheriff Tiraspol faces Zimbru with a 54% probability of winning compared to Zimbru's 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.88 for Sheriff Tiraspol and 1.14 for Zimbru.
Both teams to score stands at 59%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 58%. However, Zimbru's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, which could challenge Sheriff Tiraspol's dominance. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru: model vs market
| Source | Sheriff Tiraspol | Draw | Zimbru |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sheriff Tiraspol and Zimbru expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Sheriff Tiraspol / Zimbru)
- 1.54 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Sheriff Tiraspol / Zimbru)
- 0.74 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sheriff Tiraspol goals. Columns: Zimbru goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 54% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Zimbru | 22% | 4.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.71 |
| No | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sheriff Tiraspol or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Zimbru) | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheriff Tiraspol win by 2+ | 31% | 3.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sheriff Tiraspol and Zimbru recent form
Sheriff Tiraspol
5W 1D 0L
Zimbru
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sheriff Tiraspol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 8
- They have won 10 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.9 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zimbru away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 8
- They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sheriff Tiraspol at home only, Zimbru away only.
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sheriff Tiraspol 5 · draws 1 · Zimbru 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Zimbru | 2-1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-07-12 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 4-2 | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-05-23 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 2-0 | Zimbru | Cupa |
| 2026-05-10 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 1-0 | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-04-05 | Zimbru | 2-2 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-11-23 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 0-1 | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-09-21 | Zimbru | 2-0 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-07-27 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 2-3 | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-05-14 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 1-0 | Zimbru | Cupa |
| 2025-04-30 | Zimbru | 1-2 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Cupa |
Other Matchday 17 fixtures
- CSF Bălți v Petrocub — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Sheriff Tiraspol, previous: Politehnica UTM v Sheriff Tiraspol analysis
- Zimbru, previous: Zimbru vs CSF Bălți prediction