Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol preview
In the Moldova Super Liga match between Politehnica UTM and Sheriff Tiraspol, the 1X2 probabilities show Sheriff Tiraspol at 54% and Politehnica UTM at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 68%.
Politehnica UTM's recent form includes 2 draws and 4 losses, while Sheriff Tiraspol has won 4 of their last 5 matches. The expected goals are 1.43 for Politehnica UTM and 2.21 for Sheriff Tiraspol. However, if Politehnica UTM can improve their form, they might challenge the expected outcome.
Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol: model vs market
| Source | Politehnica UTM | Draw | Sheriff Tiraspol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 22% | 54% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 22% | 54% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.43.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Politehnica UTM and Sheriff Tiraspol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.63
- Attack rating (Politehnica UTM / Sheriff Tiraspol)
- 1.02 / 1.54
- Defence rating (Politehnica UTM / Sheriff Tiraspol)
- 1.07 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Politehnica UTM goals. Columns: Sheriff Tiraspol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Politehnica UTM | 24% | 4.24 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Sheriff Tiraspol | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Politehnica UTM or draw) | 46% | 2.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Sheriff Tiraspol) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheriff Tiraspol win by 2+ | 34% | 2.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Politehnica UTM and Sheriff Tiraspol recent form
Politehnica UTM
1W 2D 3L
Sheriff Tiraspol
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Politehnica UTM at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sheriff Tiraspol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-1
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 9 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Politehnica UTM at home only, Sheriff Tiraspol away only.
Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Politehnica UTM 0 · draws 1 · Sheriff Tiraspol 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 4-0 | Politehnica UTM | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-07-04 | Politehnica UTM | 0-0 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-10-04 | Politehnica UTM | 1-2 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-08-10 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 3-0 | Politehnica UTM | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-06-22 | Politehnica UTM | 0-4 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Dacia-Buiucani vs Sireți 2026-10-24
- Petrocub v Milsami Orhei — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Politehnica UTM, previous: CSF Bălți vs Politehnica UTM prediction
- Sheriff Tiraspol, previous: Sheriff Tiraspol v Sireți analysis