Sheriff Tiraspol vs Sireți: model vs market
| Source | Sheriff Tiraspol | Draw | Sireți |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Market | 81% | 14% | 6% |
| Published | 77% | 16% | 8% |
| Edge | -17% | +8% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Sireți odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sheriff Tiraspol, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheriff Tiraspol | 1.02 | 1.11 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 9.00 | 6.62 | -2.38 |
| Sireți | 30.00 | 16.00 | -14.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sheriff Tiraspol and Sireți expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Sheriff Tiraspol / Sireți)
- 1.58 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Sheriff Tiraspol / Sireți)
- 0.96 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Sireți score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sheriff Tiraspol goals. Columns: Sireți goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Sireți goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sheriff Tiraspol vs Sireți
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 77% | 1.31 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.44 | |
| Sireți | 8% | 12.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sheriff Tiraspol or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Sireți) | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheriff Tiraspol win by 2+ | 41% | 2.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sheriff Tiraspol and Sireți recent form
Sheriff Tiraspol
4W 1D 1L
Sireți
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sheriff Tiraspol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-0
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 7
- They have won 9 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sireți away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 1 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sheriff Tiraspol at home only, Sireți away only.
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Sireți head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sheriff Tiraspol 1 · draws 1 · Sireți 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Sireți | 1-1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-06-28 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 3-0 | Sireți | Moldova Super Liga |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Petrocub vs Dacia-Buiucani 2026-10-17
- CSF Bălți v Politehnica UTM — match page 2026-10-18
- Milsami Orhei vs Zimbru — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Sheriff Tiraspol, previous: Dacia-Buiucani vs Sheriff Tiraspol: odds and pick
- Sheriff Tiraspol, next: Politehnica UTM v Sheriff Tiraspol analysis
- Sireți, previous: CSF Bălți v Sireți analysis
- Sireți, next: Dacia-Buiucani – Sireți, 2026-10-24