Milsami Orhei vs Zimbru preview
Milsami Orhei faces Zimbru with a 26% chance of winning for Milsami compared to 46% for Zimbru. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a 9% probability. Milsami's recent form shows 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Zimbru has 5 wins and 1 draw in the same period.
Both teams to score has a 55% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 51%. Milsami's expected goals are 1.14, while Zimbru's are higher at 1.57. The head-to-head record favors Zimbru with 4 wins out of the last 7 encounters. However, Milsami's recent form could challenge Zimbru's momentum.
Milsami Orhei vs Zimbru: model vs market
| Source | Milsami Orhei | Draw | Zimbru |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Milsami Orhei and Zimbru expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Milsami Orhei / Zimbru)
- 0.95 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Milsami Orhei / Zimbru)
- 0.97 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Milsami Orhei vs Zimbru score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Milsami Orhei goals. Columns: Zimbru goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Milsami Orhei vs Zimbru goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Milsami Orhei vs Zimbru
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Milsami Orhei | 27% | 3.77 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Zimbru | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Milsami Orhei or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Zimbru) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zimbru win by 2+ | 24% | 4.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Milsami Orhei and Zimbru recent form
Milsami Orhei
3W 2D 1L
Zimbru
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Milsami Orhei at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
Zimbru away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-1
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.14
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Milsami Orhei at home only, Zimbru away only.
Milsami Orhei vs Zimbru head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Milsami Orhei 2 · draws 2 · Zimbru 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Zimbru | 4-2 | Milsami Orhei | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-06-27 | Milsami Orhei | 0-0 | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-05-13 | Milsami Orhei | 0-1 | Zimbru | Cupa |
| 2026-05-06 | Zimbru | 2-0 | Milsami Orhei | Cupa |
| 2026-04-18 | Zimbru | 3-1 | Milsami Orhei | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-03-07 | Milsami Orhei | 0-0 | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-10-05 | Milsami Orhei | 0-3 | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-08-10 | Zimbru | 2-1 | Milsami Orhei | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-06-21 | Milsami Orhei | 3-0 | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-04-19 | Milsami Orhei | 2-0 | Zimbru | Super Liga |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Sheriff Tiraspol vs Sireți — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Petrocub vs Dacia-Buiucani 2026-10-17
- CSF Bălți v Politehnica UTM — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Milsami Orhei, previous: Milsami Orhei vs Politehnica UTM prediction
- Milsami Orhei, next: Petrocub vs Milsami Orhei: odds and pick
- Zimbru, previous: Petrocub – Zimbru, 2026-10-11