CSF Bălți vs Politehnica UTM preview
In the Moldova Super Liga fixture, CSF Bălți faces Politehnica UTM with a 77% probability for a Politehnica UTM win, compared to just 8% for CSF Bălți. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with expected goals of 0.81 for CSF Bălți and 2.73 for Politehnica UTM.
Politehnica UTM's recent form shows 2 draws and 1 win in their last 6 matches, while CSF Bălți has lost all of their last 6 games. The model suggests a 69% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score. However, CSF Bălți's past head-to-head record includes 3 wins against Politehnica UTM, which could influence the outcome.
CSF Bălți vs Politehnica UTM: model vs market
| Source | CSF Bălți | Draw | Politehnica UTM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.73 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CSF Bălți and Politehnica UTM expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.55
- Attack rating (CSF Bălți / Politehnica UTM)
- 0.47 / 1.02
- Defence rating (CSF Bălți / Politehnica UTM)
- 2.01 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CSF Bălți vs Politehnica UTM score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CSF Bălți goals. Columns: Politehnica UTM goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CSF Bălți vs Politehnica UTM goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CSF Bălți vs Politehnica UTM
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSF Bălți | 8% | 12.72 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.61 | |
| Politehnica UTM | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CSF Bălți or draw) | 23% | 4.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Politehnica UTM) | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Politehnica UTM win by 2+ | 57% | 1.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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CSF Bălți and Politehnica UTM recent form
CSF Bălți
0W 0D 6L
Politehnica UTM
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CSF Bălți at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-5
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 1 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 14 matches.
Politehnica UTM away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-4
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 2.43
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CSF Bălți at home only, Politehnica UTM away only.
CSF Bălți vs Politehnica UTM head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: CSF Bălți 3 · draws 0 · Politehnica UTM 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Politehnica UTM | 6-0 | CSF Bălți | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-06-27 | CSF Bălți | 3-0 | Politehnica UTM | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-11-22 | Politehnica UTM | 3-1 | CSF Bălți | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-09-21 | CSF Bălți | 3-2 | Politehnica UTM | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-07-26 | Politehnica UTM | 0-1 | CSF Bălți | Moldova Super Liga |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Sheriff Tiraspol vs Sireți — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Petrocub vs Dacia-Buiucani 2026-10-17
- Milsami Orhei vs Zimbru — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- CSF Bălți, previous: CSF Bălți v Sireți analysis
- Politehnica UTM, previous: Milsami Orhei vs Politehnica UTM prediction
- Politehnica UTM, next: Politehnica UTM v Sheriff Tiraspol analysis