Larne vs Limavady United preview
In the upcoming match between Larne and Limavady United, the 1X2 probabilities show Larne at 55%, while Limavady United sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.84 for Larne and 1.06 for Limavady United.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Larne has a record of L-L-W-W-W-W, while Limavady United's form is L-W-L-W-L-W. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 56%, suggesting a potential for an open game, but any deviation from recent performances could alter the expected results.
Larne vs Limavady United: model vs market
| Source | Larne | Draw | Limavady United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet). Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded — the top price across the 12 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -25.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Larne and Limavady United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Larne / Limavady United)
- 1.16 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Larne / Limavady United)
- 0.95 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Larne vs Limavady United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Larne goals. Columns: Limavady United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Larne vs Limavady United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Larne vs Limavady United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Limavady United | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Larne or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Limavady United) | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Larne and Limavady United recent form
Larne
4W 0D 2L
Limavady United
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Larne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Limavady United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Larne at home only, Limavady United away only.
Before and after this match
- Larne, previous: Bangor vs Larne prediction
- Larne, next: Larne – Portadown, 2026-10-30
- Limavady United, previous: Carrick Rangers – Limavady United, 2026-10-24