Bangor vs Larne preview
In the Northern Ireland Premiership match between Bangor and Larne, the 1X2 probabilities show Bangor at 12%, Larne at 69%, and a draw at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance, indicating that Larne is expected to win. However, if Bangor can improve their recent form, which includes 1 win in their last 6 matches, they could challenge Larne's dominance.
The expected goals are 1.03 for Bangor and 1.93 for Larne, suggesting a potential for Over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 56%. Larne's recent form includes 5 wins in their last 6 matches, while Bangor has struggled with 4 losses in their last 6. This could impact the match outcome if Bangor finds their rhythm.
Bangor vs Larne: model vs market
| Source | Bangor | Draw | Larne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Market | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| Published | 14% | 20% | 66% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bangor vs Larne odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Larne, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangor | 9.75 | 7.50 | -2.25 |
| Draw | 5.08 | 4.85 | -0.23 |
| Larne | 1.23 | 1.30 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bangor and Larne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Bangor / Larne)
- 0.70 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Bangor / Larne)
- 1.23 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bangor vs Larne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bangor goals. Columns: Larne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bangor vs Larne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bangor vs Larne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bangor | 14% | 7.30 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.02 | |
| Larne | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bangor or draw) | 34% | 2.97 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Larne) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win by 2+ | 34% | 2.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bangor and Larne recent form
Bangor
1W 1D 4L
Larne
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bangor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
Larne away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bangor at home only, Larne away only.
Bangor vs Larne head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Bangor 0 · draws 1 · Larne 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Larne | 1-0 | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-01-23 | Larne | 2-1 | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-11-04 | Larne | 2-1 | Bangor | League Cup |
| 2025-10-25 | Larne | 1-1 | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-09-06 | Bangor | 0-2 | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2023-07-07 | Bangor | 0-1 | Larne | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-08-06 | Bangor | 0-3 | Larne | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-01-08 | Bangor | 0-5 | Larne | Irish Cup |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Portadown vs Linfield 2026-10-23
- Crusaders FC vs Coleraine FC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Carrick Rangers v Limavady United — match page 2026-10-24
- Dungannon Swifts vs Cliftonville FC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Glentoran vs Ballymena United 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Bangor, previous: Bangor v Dungannon Swifts analysis
- Larne, previous: Larne – Linfield, 2026-10-20
- Larne, next: Larne vs Limavady United prediction