Portadown vs Linfield preview
In the match between Portadown and Linfield, the 1X2 probabilities show Linfield at 56%, while Portadown stands at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% chance. Linfield's recent form is strong, with 6 wins in their last 6 matches, while Portadown has only 1 win in their last 6.
The expected goals suggest Portadown will score 0.71, while Linfield is expected to net 1.56. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 40%, and both teams to score is at 41%. However, if Portadown improves their scoring or if Linfield underperforms, these predictions could change.
Portadown vs Linfield: model vs market
| Source | Portadown | Draw | Linfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 27% | 57% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 16% | 27% | 57% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Portadown and Linfield expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Portadown / Linfield)
- 0.74 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Portadown / Linfield)
- 1.15 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Portadown vs Linfield score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Portadown goals. Columns: Linfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Portadown vs Linfield goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Portadown vs Linfield
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portadown | 16% | 6.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Linfield | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Portadown or draw) | 43% | 2.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Linfield) | 84% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Linfield win by 2+ | 32% | 3.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Portadown and Linfield recent form
Portadown
1W 2D 3L
Linfield
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Portadown at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Linfield away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Portadown at home only, Linfield away only.
Portadown vs Linfield head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Portadown 1 · draws 2 · Linfield 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Portadown | 1-1 | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-03-10 | Linfield | 3-1 | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-10-17 | Portadown | 2-0 | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-09-06 | Linfield | 3-0 | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-01-18 | Portadown | 1-3 | Linfield | Premiership |
| 2024-11-30 | Linfield | 2-1 | Portadown | Premiership |
| 2024-08-30 | Portadown | 2-2 | Linfield | Premiership |
| 2024-03-10 | Linfield | 3-1 | Portadown | League Cup |
| 2023-01-28 | Portadown | 1-6 | Linfield | Premiership |
| 2022-11-05 | Portadown | 0-3 | Linfield | Premiership |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Portadown, previous: Cliftonville FC v Portadown analysis
- Linfield, previous: Larne – Linfield, 2026-10-20