Cliftonville FC vs Portadown: model vs market
| Source | Cliftonville FC | Draw | Portadown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Published | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Edge | -9% | +7% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.94.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cliftonville FC vs Portadown odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cliftonville FC, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cliftonville FC | 1.57 | 1.67 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 4.03 | 3.86 | -0.17 |
| Portadown | 4.65 | 3.90 | -0.75 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cliftonville FC and Portadown expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.26
- Attack rating (Cliftonville FC / Portadown)
- 0.74 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Cliftonville FC / Portadown)
- 0.94 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cliftonville FC vs Portadown score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cliftonville FC goals. Columns: Portadown goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cliftonville FC vs Portadown goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cliftonville FC vs Portadown
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cliftonville FC | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Portadown | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cliftonville FC or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Portadown) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cliftonville FC win by 2+ | 21% | 4.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cliftonville FC and Portadown recent form
Cliftonville FC
1W 0D 5L
Portadown
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cliftonville FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
Portadown away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cliftonville FC at home only, Portadown away only.
Cliftonville FC vs Portadown head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cliftonville FC 5 · draws 1 · Portadown 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Cliftonville FC | 3-1 | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-03-04 | Portadown | 0-2 | Cliftonville FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-11-29 | Portadown | 2-3 | Cliftonville FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-09-27 | Cliftonville FC | 1-2 | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-04-19 | Portadown | 2-0 | Cliftonville FC | Premiership |
| 2025-02-09 | Cliftonville FC | 2-2 | Portadown | Premiership |
| 2024-12-14 | Portadown | 2-0 | Cliftonville FC | Premiership |
| 2024-08-11 | Cliftonville FC | 1-0 | Portadown | Premiership |
| 2024-03-01 | Portadown | 0-2 | Cliftonville FC | Irish Cup |
| 2023-07-08 | Cliftonville FC | 1-2 | Portadown | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Larne vs Coleraine FC 2026-10-16
- Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Carrick Rangers v Linfield — match page 2026-10-17
- Glentoran vs Limavady United — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Bangor v Dungannon Swifts — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Cliftonville FC, previous: Coleraine FC vs Cliftonville FC prediction
- Cliftonville FC, next: Dungannon Swifts v Cliftonville FC analysis
- Portadown, previous: Portadown v Glentoran analysis
- Portadown, next: Portadown vs Linfield prediction