Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC: model vs market
| Source | Ballymena United | Draw | Crusaders FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Market | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Published | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.23.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ballymena United, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ballymena United | 1.61 | 1.59 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.96 | 4.05 | +0.09 |
| Crusaders FC | 4.55 | 4.33 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ballymena United and Crusaders FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Ballymena United / Crusaders FC)
- 1.01 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Ballymena United / Crusaders FC)
- 1.00 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ballymena United goals. Columns: Crusaders FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ballymena United | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Crusaders FC | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ballymena United or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Crusaders FC) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ballymena United win by 2+ | 33% | 3.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Ballymena United and Crusaders FC recent form
Ballymena United
2W 2D 2L
Crusaders FC
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ballymena United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Crusaders FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ballymena United at home only, Crusaders FC away only.
Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Ballymena United 1 · draws 2 · Crusaders FC 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Crusaders FC | 2-1 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-04-25 | Crusaders FC | 3-2 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-02-17 | Ballymena United | 2-0 | Crusaders FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-11-22 | Ballymena United | 2-2 | Crusaders FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-09-20 | Crusaders FC | 1-1 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-02-15 | Crusaders FC | 3-1 | Ballymena United | Premiership |
| 2024-10-26 | Crusaders FC | 1-0 | Ballymena United | Premiership |
| 2024-08-20 | Ballymena United | 0-1 | Crusaders FC | Premiership |
| 2024-03-09 | Ballymena United | 2-4 | Crusaders FC | Premiership |
| 2023-10-13 | Crusaders FC | 1-0 | Ballymena United | Premiership |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Larne vs Coleraine FC 2026-10-16
- Carrick Rangers v Linfield — match page 2026-10-17
- Glentoran vs Limavady United — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Bangor v Dungannon Swifts — match page 2026-10-17
- Cliftonville FC vs Portadown 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Ballymena United, previous: Limavady United vs Ballymena United prediction
- Ballymena United, next: Glentoran vs Ballymena United: odds and pick
- Crusaders FC, previous: Crusaders FC – Larne, 2026-10-10
- Crusaders FC, next: Crusaders FC vs Coleraine FC: odds and pick