Updated

Northern Ireland Premiership · Matchday 12

Carrick Rangers vs Linfield

· Taylors Avenue, Carrickfergus

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Linfield to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Carrick RangersDrawLinfield

Carrick Rangers vs Linfield: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCarrick RangersDrawLinfield
Model29%27%44%
Market25%26%49%
Published26%26%48%
Edge+4%+2%-6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Carrick Rangers vs Linfield odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Linfield, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.85Now 1.83 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Carrick Rangers3.603.60+0.00
Draw3.543.54-0.00
Linfield1.851.83-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Carrick Rangers and Linfield expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Carrick Rangers
1.55Linfield
Total expected goals
2.78
Attack rating (Carrick Rangers / Linfield)
1.27 / 1.01
Defence rating (Carrick Rangers / Linfield)
1.14 / 0.62

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Carrick Rangers vs Linfield score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 8.4% 7.5% 3.9% 2.1% 1 6.4% 13.0% 9.2% 4.7% 2.6% 2 4.7% 7.3% 5.6% 2.9% 1.6% 3 1.9% 3.0% 2.3% 1.2% 0.7% 4+ 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Carrick Rangers goals. Columns: Linfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Carrick Rangers vs Linfield goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Carrick Rangers vs Linfield

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Carrick Rangers26%3.83
Draw26%3.84
Linfield48%2.09
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.11
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.76
No43%2.32
Double chance1X (Carrick Rangers or draw)52%1.92
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Linfield)74%1.35
Handicap -1Linfield win by 2+23%4.43
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Carrick Rangers and Linfield recent form

Carrick Rangers 2W 1D 3L
Linfield 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Carrick Rangers at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-3
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.

Linfield away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Carrick Rangers at home only, Linfield away only.

Carrick Rangers vs Linfield head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Carrick Rangers 1 · draws 2 · Linfield 7.

Carrick RangersDrawsLinfield
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-05Linfield1-0Carrick RangersNorthern Ireland Premiership
2026-03-20Carrick Rangers2-0LinfieldNorthern Ireland Premiership
2026-01-13Carrick Rangers0-0LinfieldNorthern Ireland Premiership
2025-11-29Linfield3-1Carrick RangersNorthern Ireland Premiership
2025-01-11Linfield3-0Carrick RangersPremiership
2024-11-03Carrick Rangers1-3LinfieldPremiership
2024-09-21Linfield1-0Carrick RangersPremiership
2024-04-02Carrick Rangers2-3LinfieldPremiership
2023-10-13Carrick Rangers1-2LinfieldPremiership
2023-08-26Linfield3-3Carrick RangersPremiership

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match