Glentoran vs Limavady United: model vs market
| Source | Glentoran | Draw | Limavady United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 29% | 24% |
| Market | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Published | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Edge | -22% | +11% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.97.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Glentoran vs Limavady United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Glentoran, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glentoran | 1.29 | 1.29 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 5.05 | 5.00 | -0.05 |
| Limavady United | 7.73 | 7.40 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Glentoran and Limavady United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (Glentoran / Limavady United)
- 0.89 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Glentoran / Limavady United)
- 0.78 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Glentoran vs Limavady United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Glentoran goals. Columns: Limavady United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Glentoran vs Limavady United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Glentoran vs Limavady United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Glentoran | 64% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Limavady United | 15% | 6.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Glentoran or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Limavady United) | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Glentoran win by 2+ | 24% | 4.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Glentoran and Limavady United recent form
Glentoran
3W 2D 1L
Limavady United
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Glentoran at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Limavady United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Glentoran at home only, Limavady United away only.
Glentoran vs Limavady United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Glentoran 1 · draws 0 · Limavady United 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Glentoran | 2-0 | Limavady United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-08-02 | Limavady United | 1-0 | Glentoran | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Larne vs Coleraine FC 2026-10-16
- Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Carrick Rangers v Linfield — match page 2026-10-17
- Bangor v Dungannon Swifts — match page 2026-10-17
- Cliftonville FC vs Portadown 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Glentoran, previous: Portadown v Glentoran analysis
- Glentoran, next: Glentoran vs Ballymena United: odds and pick
- Limavady United, previous: Limavady United vs Ballymena United prediction
- Limavady United, next: Carrick Rangers – Limavady United, 2026-10-24