Bangor vs Dungannon Swifts: model vs market
| Source | Bangor | Draw | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 27% | 38% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Published | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | +9% | +2% | -11% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Bangor vs Dungannon Swifts odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dungannon Swifts, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangor | 3.90 | 3.49 | -0.41 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.61 | -0.17 |
| Dungannon Swifts | 1.74 | 1.83 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bangor and Dungannon Swifts expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Bangor / Dungannon Swifts)
- 0.75 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Bangor / Dungannon Swifts)
- 1.34 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bangor vs Dungannon Swifts score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bangor goals. Columns: Dungannon Swifts goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bangor vs Dungannon Swifts goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bangor vs Dungannon Swifts
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bangor | 28% | 3.57 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Dungannon Swifts | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bangor or draw) | 54% | 1.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Dungannon Swifts) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dungannon Swifts win by 2+ | 19% | 5.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bangor and Dungannon Swifts recent form
Bangor
1W 1D 4L
Dungannon Swifts
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bangor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dungannon Swifts away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bangor at home only, Dungannon Swifts away only.
Bangor vs Dungannon Swifts head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Bangor 2 · draws 0 · Dungannon Swifts 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Dungannon Swifts | 2-0 | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-03-21 | Dungannon Swifts | 0-1 | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-12-26 | Dungannon Swifts | 1-0 | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-08-30 | Bangor | 2-1 | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-03-29 | Bangor | 0-2 | Dungannon Swifts | Irish Cup |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Larne vs Coleraine FC 2026-10-16
- Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Carrick Rangers v Linfield — match page 2026-10-17
- Glentoran vs Limavady United — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cliftonville FC vs Portadown 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Bangor, previous: Linfield vs Bangor: odds and pick
- Dungannon Swifts, previous: Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers: odds and pick
- Dungannon Swifts, next: Dungannon Swifts v Cliftonville FC analysis