Larne vs Portadown preview
Larne faces Portadown with a 58% probability of winning compared to Portadown's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% chance. Larne's expected goals stand at 1.98, while Portadown's is significantly lower at 1.05.
Both teams to score has a 57% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is forecasted at 58%. However, Larne's recent form shows two losses in their last three matches, which could impact their performance. Portadown has also struggled, with two losses in their last three. This inconsistency may lead to a different outcome than expected.
Larne vs Portadown: model vs market
| Source | Larne | Draw | Portadown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 58% | 24% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Larne and Portadown expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (Larne / Portadown)
- 1.16 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Larne / Portadown)
- 0.95 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Larne vs Portadown score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Larne goals. Columns: Portadown goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Larne vs Portadown goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Larne vs Portadown
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Portadown | 19% | 5.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Larne or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Portadown) | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win by 2+ | 35% | 2.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Larne and Portadown recent form
Larne
4W 0D 2L
Portadown
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Larne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portadown away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Larne at home only, Portadown away only.
Larne vs Portadown head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Larne 6 · draws 1 · Portadown 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Portadown | 0-2 | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-02-14 | Portadown | 2-1 | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-11-07 | Larne | 3-0 | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-08-22 | Larne | 4-0 | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-02-15 | Portadown | 2-0 | Larne | Premiership |
| 2025-02-01 | Larne | 1-1 | Portadown | Premiership |
| 2024-10-27 | Portadown | 2-1 | Larne | Premiership |
| 2023-01-24 | Larne | 2-0 | Portadown | Premiership |
| 2022-11-12 | Portadown | 0-5 | Larne | Premiership |
| 2022-09-17 | Portadown | 0-1 | Larne | Premiership |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Coleraine FC v Glentoran — match page 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Larne, previous: Larne vs Limavady United prediction
- Portadown, previous: Portadown vs Linfield prediction