Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów preview

In the Poland Cup fixture between Arka Gdynia and Stal Rzeszów, the 1X2 probabilities show Stal Rzeszów at 40%, while Arka Gdynia is at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.31 for Arka Gdynia and 1.47 for Stal Rzeszów.

Both teams to score is at 57%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%. However, Arka Gdynia's recent form features three losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. In contrast, Stal Rzeszów has won their last six matches, indicating strong momentum.

Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Arka Gdynia	Draw	Stal Rzeszów
Model	29%	25%	46%
Market	—	—	—
Published	29%	25%	46%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.40.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Arka Gdynia and Stal Rzeszów expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.40Arka Gdynia

1.78Stal Rzeszów

Total expected goals: 3.18
Attack rating (Arka Gdynia / Stal Rzeszów): 0.86 / 1.14
Defence rating (Arka Gdynia / Stal Rzeszów): 1.00 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 6.4% 6.6% 3.9% 2.6% 1 4.8% 11.4% 9.2% 5.5% 3.6% 2 4.1% 7.3% 6.5% 3.8% 2.5% 3 1.9% 3.4% 3.0% 1.8% 1.2% 4+ 0.9% 1.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.6%

Rows: Arka Gdynia goals. Columns: Stal Rzeszów goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 62%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Arka Gdynia	29%	3.41
	Draw	25%	3.98
	Stal Rzeszów	46%	2.20
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62%	1.62
	Under 2.5	38%	2.60
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.57
	No	36%	2.75
Double chance	1X (Arka Gdynia or draw)	54%	1.84
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Stal Rzeszów)	71%	1.41
Handicap -1	Stal Rzeszów win by 2+	25%	3.97
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer