Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza preview
Arka Gdynia faces Nieciecza with a 38% chance of winning for Arka, compared to 36% for Nieciecza. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% probability. Arka Gdynia's expected goals stand at 1.21, while Nieciecza has a higher figure of 1.75.
Arka Gdynia's recent form shows 4 losses in their last 5 matches, while Nieciecza has won 6 consecutive games. Both teams to score has a 59% chance, and Over 2.5 goals is at 57%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. A draw or a strong performance from Arka could alter the expected outcome.
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza: model vs market
| Source | Arka Gdynia | Draw | Nieciecza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Published | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arka Gdynia, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.49 | +0.01 |
| Nieciecza | 2.86 | 2.86 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arka Gdynia and Nieciecza expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Arka Gdynia / Nieciecza)
- 0.88 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Arka Gdynia / Nieciecza)
- 1.03 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arka Gdynia goals. Columns: Nieciecza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arka Gdynia | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Nieciecza | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arka Gdynia or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Nieciecza) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arka Gdynia win by 2+ | 11% | 9.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arka Gdynia and Nieciecza recent form
Arka Gdynia
1W 1D 4L
Nieciecza
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arka Gdynia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Nieciecza away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arka Gdynia at home only, Nieciecza away only.
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Arka Gdynia 2 · draws 2 · Nieciecza 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Arka Gdynia | 2-3 | Nieciecza | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-11-21 | Nieciecza | 2-0 | Arka Gdynia | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-05-04 | Arka Gdynia | 2-1 | Nieciecza | I Liga |
| 2024-10-26 | Nieciecza | 2-1 | Arka Gdynia | I Liga |
| 2023-12-11 | Nieciecza | 2-1 | Arka Gdynia | I Liga |
| 2023-07-21 | Arka Gdynia | 2-2 | Nieciecza | I Liga |
| 2023-06-03 | Nieciecza | 2-1 | Arka Gdynia | I Liga |
| 2022-11-06 | Arka Gdynia | 1-2 | Nieciecza | I Liga |
| 2021-04-21 | Arka Gdynia | 1-1 | Nieciecza | I Liga |
| 2020-09-25 | Nieciecza | 0-1 | Arka Gdynia | I Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica 2026-10-23
- Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk — match page 2026-10-24
- Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Ruch Chorzów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — match page 2026-10-25
- Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów 2026-10-25
- Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Arka Gdynia, previous: Lechia Gdansk – Arka Gdynia, 2026-10-18
- Arka Gdynia, next: Arka Gdynia v Stal Rzeszów analysis
- Nieciecza, previous: Nieciecza v Puszcza Niepołomice analysis
- Nieciecza, next: Olimpia Grudziądz vs Nieciecza prediction