Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk preview
In the upcoming match between Puszcza Niepołomice and Lechia Gdansk, the 1X2 probabilities show Lechia Gdansk at 39% and Puszcza Niepołomice at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The model indicates a 61% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score.
Puszcza Niepołomice's expected goals sit at 1.52, while Lechia Gdansk's is slightly higher at 1.62. Recent form favors Lechia Gdansk, who have won 5 of their last 6 matches, compared to Puszcza's 3 wins in the same period. A surprise result could occur if Puszcza Niepołomice manages to outperform their expected goals or if Lechia Gdansk's form dips.
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk: model vs market
| Source | Puszcza Niepołomice | Draw | Lechia Gdansk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Published | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lechia Gdansk, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 2.70 | 2.70 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.48 | +0.00 |
| Lechia Gdansk | 2.25 | 2.27 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Lechia Gdansk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Puszcza Niepołomice / Lechia Gdansk)
- 0.83 / 1.36
- Defence rating (Puszcza Niepołomice / Lechia Gdansk)
- 0.95 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Puszcza Niepołomice goals. Columns: Lechia Gdansk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Lechia Gdansk | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Puszcza Niepołomice or draw) | 58% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Lechia Gdansk) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lechia Gdansk win by 2+ | 26% | 3.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Lechia Gdansk recent form
Puszcza Niepołomice
2W 0D 4L
Lechia Gdansk
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Puszcza Niepołomice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lechia Gdansk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Puszcza Niepołomice at home only, Lechia Gdansk away only.
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Puszcza Niepołomice 3 · draws 0 · Lechia Gdansk 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-29 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 1-3 | Lechia Gdansk | Poland Cup |
| 2025-02-23 | Lechia Gdansk | 0-2 | Puszcza Niepołomice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-08-16 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 4-1 | Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa |
| 2021-02-09 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 3-1 | Lechia Gdansk | Cup |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza — match page 2026-10-24
- Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Ruch Chorzów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — match page 2026-10-25
- Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów 2026-10-25
- Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Puszcza Niepołomice, previous: Nieciecza v Puszcza Niepołomice analysis
- Puszcza Niepołomice, next: Puszcza Niepołomice v Wisla Plock analysis
- Lechia Gdansk, previous: Lechia Gdansk – Arka Gdynia, 2026-10-18
- Lechia Gdansk, next: Lechia Gdansk – Jagiellonia, 2026-10-28