Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki preview
In the I Liga match between Ruch Chorzów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, the 1X2 probabilities show Ruch Chorzów at 45%, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 12%. Ruch Chorzów's expected goals stand at 1.36, while Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has 0.96.
Ruch Chorzów is in good form, with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has only 2 wins in their last 6. The model suggests a 41% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score. However, if Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki improves their scoring, it could change the dynamics of the match.
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: model vs market
| Source | Ruch Chorzów | Draw | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Market | 57% | 23% | 19% |
| Published | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ruch Chorzów, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruch Chorzów | 1.58 | 1.58 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ruch Chorzów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.32
- Attack rating (Ruch Chorzów / Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
- 1.12 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Ruch Chorzów / Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
- 0.68 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ruch Chorzów goals. Columns: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ruch Chorzów | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 21% | 4.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.12 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ruch Chorzów or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ruch Chorzów win by 2+ | 22% | 4.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ruch Chorzów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki recent form
Ruch Chorzów
4W 2D 0L
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ruch Chorzów at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ruch Chorzów at home only, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away only.
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ruch Chorzów 0 · draws 2 · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Ruch Chorzów | 2-2 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga |
| 2025-10-17 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 2-2 | Ruch Chorzów | I Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica 2026-10-23
- Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza — match page 2026-10-24
- Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk — match page 2026-10-24
- Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów 2026-10-25
- Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Ruch Chorzów, previous: Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole analysis
- Ruch Chorzów, next: Znicz Pruszków vs Ruch Chorzów prediction
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, previous: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa prediction