Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów preview
Stal Mielec faces Chrobry Głogów with a 39% chance of winning compared to 35% for Chrobry Głogów. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Both teams have struggled recently, with Stal Mielec recording L-W-L-L-D-D and Chrobry Głogów at L-L-L-D-D-W.
The model suggests a 62% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance for both teams to score. However, Stal Mielec has not won against Chrobry Głogów in their last 2 meetings, which could impact their performance. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów: model vs market
| Source | Stal Mielec | Draw | Chrobry Głogów |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 25% | 35% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Published | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.33, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stal Mielec, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Mielec | 2.26 | 2.25 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.36 | +0.04 |
| Chrobry Głogów | 2.77 | 2.77 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stal Mielec and Chrobry Głogów expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Stal Mielec / Chrobry Głogów)
- 1.03 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Stal Mielec / Chrobry Głogów)
- 1.53 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stal Mielec goals. Columns: Chrobry Głogów goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Mielec | 40% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Chrobry Głogów | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stal Mielec or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Chrobry Głogów) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stal Mielec win by 2+ | 21% | 4.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stal Mielec and Chrobry Głogów recent form
Stal Mielec
1W 2D 3L
Chrobry Głogów
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stal Mielec at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chrobry Głogów away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stal Mielec at home only, Chrobry Głogów away only.
Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Stal Mielec 2 · draws 1 · Chrobry Głogów 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Chrobry Głogów | 2-1 | Stal Mielec | I Liga |
| 2025-10-03 | Stal Mielec | 1-2 | Chrobry Głogów | I Liga |
| 2020-07-14 | Stal Mielec | 1-0 | Chrobry Głogów | I Liga |
| 2019-10-27 | Chrobry Głogów | 1-0 | Stal Mielec | I Liga |
| 2019-04-28 | Stal Mielec | 5-1 | Chrobry Głogów | I Liga |
| 2018-10-13 | Chrobry Głogów | 0-0 | Stal Mielec | I Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza — match page 2026-10-24
- Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk — match page 2026-10-24
- Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Ruch Chorzów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — match page 2026-10-25
- Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów 2026-10-25
- Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Stal Mielec, previous: Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec prediction
- Chrobry Głogów, previous: Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów: odds and pick
- Chrobry Głogów, next: Chrobry Głogów vs Polonia Bytom prediction