Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce preview
In the I Liga fixture between Odra Opole and Pogoń Siedlce, the 1X2 probabilities show Odra Opole at 38%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 14%. Pogoń Siedlce has a 28% chance of winning, which suggests a competitive match. The expected goals indicate Odra Opole at 1.07 and Pogoń Siedlce at 0.89, hinting at a low-scoring affair.
However, the chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at only 31%, and both teams to score is at 40%. This indicates that while Odra Opole has a better recent form with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, Pogoń Siedlce's recent form includes 3 wins, which could challenge Odra Opole's chances.
Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce: model vs market
| Source | Odra Opole | Draw | Pogoń Siedlce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Published | 45% | 29% | 27% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Odra Opole, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odra Opole | 1.92 | 1.95 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.28 | +0.00 |
| Pogoń Siedlce | 3.62 | 3.58 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Odra Opole and Pogoń Siedlce expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Odra Opole / Pogoń Siedlce)
- 0.68 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Odra Opole / Pogoń Siedlce)
- 0.83 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Odra Opole goals. Columns: Pogoń Siedlce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Odra Opole | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Pogoń Siedlce | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Odra Opole or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Pogoń Siedlce) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Odra Opole win by 2+ | 17% | 5.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Odra Opole and Pogoń Siedlce recent form
Odra Opole
2W 1D 3L
Pogoń Siedlce
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Odra Opole at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Pogoń Siedlce away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Odra Opole at home only, Pogoń Siedlce away only.
Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Odra Opole 2 · draws 0 · Pogoń Siedlce 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Odra Opole | 1-0 | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga |
| 2025-08-03 | Pogoń Siedlce | 0-1 | Odra Opole | I Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica 2026-10-23
- Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza — match page 2026-10-24
- Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk — match page 2026-10-24
- Ruch Chorzów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — match page 2026-10-25
- Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów 2026-10-25
- Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Odra Opole, previous: Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole analysis
- Odra Opole, next: Odra Opole – Slask Wroclaw, 2026-10-29
- Pogoń Siedlce, previous: Pogoń Siedlce – Stal Rzeszów, 2026-10-18
- Pogoń Siedlce, next: Tychy 71 vs Pogoń Siedlce: odds and pick