Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica preview
In the upcoming match between Polonia Warszawa and Miedz Legnica, the 1X2 probabilities show Polonia Warszawa at 44%, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 11%. Polonia Warszawa has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.43 compared to Miedz Legnica's 1.05.
However, both teams to score stands at 51%, indicating a reasonable chance that Miedz Legnica could find the net. Recent form also favors Polonia Warszawa, who have won 2 of their last 5 matches, while Miedz Legnica has lost 4 of their last 5. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica: model vs market
| Source | Polonia Warszawa | Draw | Miedz Legnica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Published | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Polonia Warszawa, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Warszawa | 1.91 | 1.88 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.58 | -0.02 |
| Miedz Legnica | 3.38 | 3.40 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Polonia Warszawa and Miedz Legnica expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.36
- Attack rating (Polonia Warszawa / Miedz Legnica)
- 1.05 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Polonia Warszawa / Miedz Legnica)
- 0.82 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Polonia Warszawa goals. Columns: Miedz Legnica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Warszawa | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Miedz Legnica | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Polonia Warszawa or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Miedz Legnica) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Warszawa win by 2+ | 18% | 5.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Polonia Warszawa and Miedz Legnica recent form
Polonia Warszawa
4W 1D 1L
Miedz Legnica
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Polonia Warszawa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Miedz Legnica away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Polonia Warszawa at home only, Miedz Legnica away only.
Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Polonia Warszawa 1 · draws 2 · Miedz Legnica 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Polonia Warszawa | 1-1 | Miedz Legnica | I Liga |
| 2025-09-14 | Miedz Legnica | 1-1 | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| 2025-03-02 | Miedz Legnica | 2-3 | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| 2024-08-17 | Polonia Warszawa | 0-1 | Miedz Legnica | I Liga |
| 2024-02-23 | Miedz Legnica | 2-1 | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| 2023-08-14 | Polonia Warszawa | 3-4 | Miedz Legnica | I Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza — match page 2026-10-24
- Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk — match page 2026-10-24
- Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Ruch Chorzów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — match page 2026-10-25
- Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów 2026-10-25
- Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Polonia Warszawa, previous: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa prediction
- Polonia Warszawa, next: Polonia Warszawa v Korona Kielce analysis
- Miedz Legnica, previous: Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec prediction