Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce preview

In the Poland Cup fixture between Polonia Warszawa and Korona Kielce, the 1X2 probabilities show Polonia at 41%, with Korona at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a 10% chance.

Polonia Warszawa's expected goals stand at 1.33, while Korona Kielce's is 1.09. Both teams to score has a probability of 50%, indicating a balanced matchup. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting that unexpected outcomes could arise, such as a higher scoring game or a draw. Over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, which highlights the potential for more action than the predicted scoreline suggests.

Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Polonia Warszawa	Draw	Korona Kielce
Model	54%	26%	20%
Market	—	—	—
Published	54%	26%	20%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.99.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Polonia Warszawa and Korona Kielce expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.73Polonia Warszawa

0.99Korona Kielce

Total expected goals: 2.72
Attack rating (Polonia Warszawa / Korona Kielce): 1.02 / 0.80
Defence rating (Polonia Warszawa / Korona Kielce): 0.79 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 5.4% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3% 1 10.2% 12.4% 5.6% 1.8% 0.6% 2 9.8% 9.8% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 3 5.7% 5.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 3.6% 3.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Polonia Warszawa goals. Columns: Korona Kielce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 53%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Polonia Warszawa	54%	1.86
	Draw	26%	3.85
	Korona Kielce	20%	4.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.95
	Under 2.5	49%	2.05
Both teams to score	Yes	53%	1.89
	No	47%	2.12
Double chance	1X (Polonia Warszawa or draw)	80%	1.26
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Korona Kielce)	46%	2.16
Handicap -1	Polonia Warszawa win by 2+	30%	3.29
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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