Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice preview
In the match between Korona Kielce and GKS Katowice, the 1X2 probabilities show Korona Kielce at 41%, GKS Katowice at 34%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% chance, suggesting a competitive match. The model indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 64%.
Korona Kielce's expected goals stand at 1.38, while GKS Katowice has a higher figure of 1.84. Recent form shows Korona Kielce with a record of L-L-W-L-W-D, while GKS Katowice has L-W-W-W-L-L. The head-to-head record favors GKS Katowice, who has 1 win and 1 draw in their last 2 encounters. A change in either team's recent form could impact the outcome.
Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice: model vs market
| Source | Korona Kielce | Draw | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Published | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Korona Kielce, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Korona Kielce | 2.10 | 2.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.60 | +0.06 |
| GKS Katowice | 3.09 | 3.10 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Korona Kielce and GKS Katowice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.23
- Attack rating (Korona Kielce / GKS Katowice)
- 0.85 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Korona Kielce / GKS Katowice)
- 1.22 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Korona Kielce goals. Columns: GKS Katowice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Korona Kielce | 40% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| GKS Katowice | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Korona Kielce or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or GKS Katowice) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Korona Kielce win by 2+ | 13% | 7.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Korona Kielce and GKS Katowice recent form
Korona Kielce
2W 1D 3L
GKS Katowice
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Korona Kielce at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GKS Katowice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Korona Kielce at home only, GKS Katowice away only.
Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Korona Kielce 2 · draws 1 · GKS Katowice 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Korona Kielce | 1-1 | GKS Katowice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-10-25 | GKS Katowice | 1-0 | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-05-05 | Korona Kielce | 2-1 | GKS Katowice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-11-04 | GKS Katowice | 1-2 | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
| 2022-12-10 | Korona Kielce | 0-1 | GKS Katowice | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-05-14 | Korona Kielce | 1-2 | GKS Katowice | I Liga |
| 2021-11-06 | GKS Katowice | 1-0 | Korona Kielce | I Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze — match page 2026-10-23
- Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow 2026-10-24
- Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków — match page 2026-10-25
- Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock 2026-10-25
- Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Korona Kielce, previous: Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce: odds and pick
- Korona Kielce, next: Polonia Warszawa v Korona Kielce analysis
- GKS Katowice, previous: GKS Katowice – Pogon Szczecin, 2026-10-17
- GKS Katowice, next: Górnik Łęczna – GKS Katowice, 2026-10-27