Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan, the 1X2 probabilities show Legia Warszawa at 38% and Lech Poznan at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% chance. There is a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 72%.
Legia Warszawa's expected goals stand at 2.14, while Lech Poznan has 1.64. Recent form shows Legia with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Lech has 2 wins and 3 losses. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Factors like a change in team form or injuries could impact the outcome.
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan: model vs market
| Source | Legia Warszawa | Draw | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 23% | 28% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Published | 40% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.53.
- The market prices Legia Warszawa below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Legia Warszawa, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legia Warszawa | 2.65 | 2.55 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.44 | -0.10 |
| Lech Poznan | 2.37 | 2.50 | +0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.62
- Attack rating (Legia Warszawa / Lech Poznan)
- 1.25 / 1.67
- Defence rating (Legia Warszawa / Lech Poznan)
- 0.77 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Legia Warszawa goals. Columns: Lech Poznan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Legia Warszawa | 40% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Lech Poznan | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Legia Warszawa or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Lech Poznan) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win by 2+ | 30% | 3.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan recent form
Legia Warszawa
3W 2D 1L
Lech Poznan
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Legia Warszawa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lech Poznan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Legia Warszawa at home only, Lech Poznan away only.
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Legia Warszawa 0 · draws 1 · Lech Poznan 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Lech Poznan | 4-0 | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-10-26 | Legia Warszawa | 0-0 | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze — match page 2026-10-23
- Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow 2026-10-24
- Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice — match page 2026-10-24
- Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków — match page 2026-10-25
- Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Legia Warszawa, previous: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa prediction
- Lech Poznan, previous: Lech Poznan vs Sunderland: odds and pick
- Lech Poznan, next: Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan: odds and pick