Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom preview
Pogon Szczecin faces Radomiak Radom with a 78% probability of winning and a most likely scoreline of 2-0, which has a 14% chance according to our model. Pogon Szczecin has shown strong recent form with 3 wins and a draw in their last 5 matches, while Radomiak Radom has struggled, recording 3 losses and only 1 win in the same period.
While Pogon Szczecin's expected goals stand at 2.52 compared to Radomiak Radom's 0.64, the possibility of a draw at 16% or Radomiak Radom winning at 7% could disrupt the expected outcome. Additionally, the chances of both teams scoring are at 44%, which suggests that Radomiak Radom could find the net despite their recent form.
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom: model vs market
| Source | Pogon Szczecin | Draw | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Published | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Edge | +6% | -2% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.51.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Pogon Szczecin below our published probability: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pogon Szczecin, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin | 1.75 | 1.71 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.82 | +0.04 |
| Radomiak Radom | 4.05 | 4.20 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Pogon Szczecin / Radomiak Radom)
- 1.06 / 0.69
- Defence rating (Pogon Szczecin / Radomiak Radom)
- 0.62 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pogon Szczecin goals. Columns: Radomiak Radom goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogon Szczecin | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Radomiak Radom | 18% | 5.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.72 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pogon Szczecin or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Radomiak Radom) | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogon Szczecin win by 2+ | 55% | 1.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom recent form
Pogon Szczecin
4W 1D 1L
Radomiak Radom
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pogon Szczecin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Radomiak Radom away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pogon Szczecin at home only, Radomiak Radom away only.
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Pogon Szczecin 4 · draws 2 · Radomiak Radom 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Pogon Szczecin | 2-2 | Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-07-20 | Radomiak Radom | 5-1 | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-05-10 | Radomiak Radom | 2-0 | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-11-08 | Pogon Szczecin | 0-1 | Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-02-16 | Radomiak Radom | 0-4 | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2023-08-13 | Pogon Szczecin | 0-2 | Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| 2023-05-27 | Pogon Szczecin | 4-0 | Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| 2022-11-13 | Radomiak Radom | 1-2 | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2022-03-04 | Pogon Szczecin | 4-0 | Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| 2021-09-13 | Radomiak Radom | 1-1 | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze — match page 2026-10-23
- Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow 2026-10-24
- Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice — match page 2026-10-24
- Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków — match page 2026-10-25
- Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock 2026-10-25
- Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Pogon Szczecin, previous: GKS Katowice – Pogon Szczecin, 2026-10-17
- Radomiak Radom, previous: Wisla Plock – Radomiak Radom, 2026-10-19
- Radomiak Radom, next: Avia Świdnik vs Radomiak Radom prediction