Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow, the 1X2 probabilities show Piast Gliwice at 59%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). The expected goals are 2.06 for Piast Gliwice and 1.08 for Cracovia Krakow, indicating a strong offensive performance from the hosts.
However, Cracovia Krakow's recent form is concerning, with 1 win in their last 6 matches (W-L-L-L-D-L). While both teams to score stands at 59% and Over 2.5 goals at 61%, Cracovia's struggle to find the net could impact these outcomes.
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow: model vs market
| Source | Piast Gliwice | Draw | Cracovia Krakow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Published | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Piast Gliwice below our published probability: +5.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Piast Gliwice, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice | 2.45 | 2.60 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.37 | -0.07 |
| Cracovia Krakow | 2.58 | 2.50 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (Piast Gliwice / Cracovia Krakow)
- 1.17 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Piast Gliwice / Cracovia Krakow)
- 0.92 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Piast Gliwice goals. Columns: Cracovia Krakow goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piast Gliwice | 41% | 2.44 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Cracovia Krakow | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Piast Gliwice or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Cracovia Krakow) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Piast Gliwice win by 2+ | 35% | 2.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow recent form
Piast Gliwice
4W 1D 1L
Cracovia Krakow
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Piast Gliwice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cracovia Krakow away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Piast Gliwice at home only, Cracovia Krakow away only.
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Piast Gliwice 4 · draws 5 · Cracovia Krakow 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Cracovia Krakow | 2-3 | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-08-24 | Piast Gliwice | 0-0 | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-12-08 | Piast Gliwice | 0-0 | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-07-21 | Cracovia Krakow | 1-1 | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-02-23 | Piast Gliwice | 0-0 | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| 2023-08-21 | Cracovia Krakow | 1-1 | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2023-02-25 | Piast Gliwice | 2-1 | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| 2022-08-13 | Cracovia Krakow | 0-1 | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2022-03-20 | Cracovia Krakow | 0-1 | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2021-09-27 | Piast Gliwice | 2-4 | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze — match page 2026-10-23
- Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice — match page 2026-10-24
- Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków — match page 2026-10-25
- Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock 2026-10-25
- Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Piast Gliwice, previous: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice prediction
- Piast Gliwice, next: Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze: odds and pick
- Cracovia Krakow, previous: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa prediction