Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock preview
In the Ekstraklasa match between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock, the 1X2 probabilities show Jagiellonia at 57% and Wisla Plock at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% probability. Jagiellonia's expected goals are 2.04, while Wisla Plock's are 1.17, indicating a potential for a higher-scoring match.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Jagiellonia has lost 5 of their last 6 matches, while Wisla Plock has a more balanced recent record with 3 wins in their last 6 games. Both teams to score has a 61% chance, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 62%, suggesting a competitive encounter.
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock: model vs market
| Source | Jagiellonia | Draw | Wisla Plock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 28% |
| Published | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.27.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Jagiellonia, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 1.87 | 2.00 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.59 | -0.06 |
| Wisla Plock | 3.65 | 3.38 | -0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Jagiellonia / Wisla Plock)
- 0.96 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Jagiellonia / Wisla Plock)
- 1.24 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jagiellonia goals. Columns: Wisla Plock goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Wisla Plock | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jagiellonia or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Wisla Plock) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Jagiellonia win by 2+ | 25% | 4.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock recent form
Jagiellonia
1W 0D 5L
Wisla Plock
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jagiellonia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wisla Plock away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jagiellonia at home only, Wisla Plock away only.
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Jagiellonia 1 · draws 0 · Wisla Plock 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Jagiellonia | 1-2 | Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-09-19 | Wisla Plock | 0-1 | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze — match page 2026-10-23
- Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow 2026-10-24
- Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice — match page 2026-10-24
- Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków — match page 2026-10-25
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Before and after this match
- Jagiellonia, previous: Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht: odds and pick
- Jagiellonia, next: Lechia Gdansk – Jagiellonia, 2026-10-28
- Wisla Plock, previous: Wisla Plock – Radomiak Radom, 2026-10-19
- Wisla Plock, next: Puszcza Niepołomice v Wisla Plock analysis