Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa preview
In the match between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa, the 1X2 probabilities show Wisla Krakow at 61%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). The expected goals indicate Wisla Krakow at 2.15 and Raków Częstochowa at 1.06, suggesting a strong attacking performance from the home side.
However, Wisla Krakow's recent form includes two losses in their last six matches, which could impact their performance. Raków Częstochowa has shown some resilience with a win in their last outing, despite three losses prior. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is at 62%, and both teams to score is at 59%, indicating potential for a high-scoring match, but recent inconsistencies could lead to a different outcome.
Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa: model vs market
| Source | Wisla Krakow | Draw | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 22% | 17% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 24% |
| Published | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.06.
- The market prices Wisla Krakow below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wisla Krakow, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisla Krakow | 1.69 | 1.75 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 3.91 | -0.19 |
| Raków Częstochowa | 4.10 | 3.85 | -0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Wisla Krakow / Raków Częstochowa)
- 0.96 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Wisla Krakow / Raków Częstochowa)
- 0.82 / 1.41
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wisla Krakow goals. Columns: Raków Częstochowa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wisla Krakow | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Raków Częstochowa | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.71 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wisla Krakow or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Raków Częstochowa) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wisla Krakow win by 2+ | 39% | 2.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa recent form
Wisla Krakow
2W 2D 2L
Raków Częstochowa
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wisla Krakow at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
Raków Częstochowa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wisla Krakow at home only, Raków Częstochowa away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze — match page 2026-10-23
- Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow 2026-10-24
- Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice — match page 2026-10-24
- Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków — match page 2026-10-25
- Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock 2026-10-25
- Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Wisla Krakow, previous: Widzew Łódź v Wisla Krakow analysis
- Raków Częstochowa, previous: Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa prediction
- Raków Częstochowa, next: Motor Lublin – Raków Częstochowa, 2026-10-27