Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze preview
Widzew Łódź faces Gornik Zabrze with a 33% chance of winning for Widzew and 38% for Gornik. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 10% of the time in our model. Gornik Zabrze's recent form shows 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw, while Widzew has 5 matches with 4 draws and 1 loss.
The model suggests a 42% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score. Expected goals are 1.14 for Widzew and 1.22 for Gornik. If Widzew improves their form or Gornik underperforms, the predicted outcomes could change.
Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze: model vs market
| Source | Widzew Łódź | Draw | Gornik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Published | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gornik Zabrze, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Widzew Łódź | 2.43 | 2.81 | +0.38 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.29 | -0.11 |
| Gornik Zabrze | 2.63 | 2.38 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.36
- Attack rating (Widzew Łódź / Gornik Zabrze)
- 0.85 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Widzew Łódź / Gornik Zabrze)
- 0.93 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Widzew Łódź goals. Columns: Gornik Zabrze goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Widzew Łódź | 33% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Gornik Zabrze | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Widzew Łódź or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Gornik Zabrze) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gornik Zabrze win by 2+ | 16% | 6.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze recent form
Widzew Łódź
0W 4D 2L
Gornik Zabrze
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Widzew Łódź at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gornik Zabrze away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Widzew Łódź at home only, Gornik Zabrze away only.
Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Widzew Łódź 1 · draws 3 · Gornik Zabrze 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Widzew Łódź | 0-0 | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-09-21 | Gornik Zabrze | 3-2 | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-04-27 | Gornik Zabrze | 0-0 | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-10-27 | Widzew Łódź | 0-2 | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-02-25 | Widzew Łódź | 3-1 | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| 2023-08-18 | Gornik Zabrze | 1-1 | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
| 2023-05-13 | Widzew Łódź | 2-3 | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| 2022-10-28 | Gornik Zabrze | 3-0 | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow 2026-10-24
- Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice — match page 2026-10-24
- Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków — match page 2026-10-25
- Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock 2026-10-25
- Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Widzew Łódź, previous: Widzew Łódź v Wisla Krakow analysis
- Gornik Zabrze, previous: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice prediction
- Gornik Zabrze, next: Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze: odds and pick